BYU vs. Utah: A Preview of the Game and Key Players to Watch
BYU is gearing up for a crucial match against Utah, with the first of two matchups this month taking place in Salt Lake City. The teams are on different trajectories, with BYU as one of the top teams in the country and Utah struggling to avoid a potential last-place finish in the Big 12. Despite the apparent disparity, BYU cannot afford to underestimate their opponents. They have lost their last two games in the Huntsman Center, and while Utah's record is only 8-7, they have shown competitiveness in their losses.
The game tips off on Saturday night at 8 p.m. MT on ESPN, and here's a breakdown of the key statistics and players to watch.
BYU vs. Utah: The Numbers
- Utah's KenPom ranking: 129
- NET ranking: 143
- Record: 8-7
- Best wins: Ole Miss (N), Cal Baptist (H)
- Losses: Cal Poly (H), Grand Canyon (N), Cal (A), MS State (N), Washington (A), Arizona (H), Colorado (A)
AP Ranking: N/A
BYU's KenPom ranking: 10
NET ranking: 9
Record: 14-1
AP Ranking: 9
KenPom Prediction: BYU 88, Utah 75 (89% win probability)
Point Spread: BYU -14.5
Point Total: 166.5
Utah Overview
Utah's first season under Alex Jensen has been challenging. They are the lowest-rated Big 12 team in both KenPom and NET rankings. While they have some skilled individual scorers, their defense has been a significant weakness. Utah lacks rim protection, perimeter length, and strength, making it difficult to slow down opposing teams. They don't force turnovers, struggle on the glass, and don't protect the rim effectively, allowing teams to break down their defense.
Offensively, Utah has shown potential with players like Terrence Brown and Dom McHenry. Brown, a ball-dominant guard, excels at attacking the paint and creating scoring opportunities. McHenry, his backcourt mate, is a skilled three-point shooter, averaging 6.3 three-point attempts per game with a 42.6% success rate. However, both players have their weaknesses. Brown's efficiency varies, as evidenced by his 5-17 shooting performance against Colorado, while McHenry struggles to get to the free-throw line and has a low assist average.
Players to Watch
Terrence Brown, Guard: Brown, a 6-foot-3, 175-pound guard, is Utah's primary offensive threat. He averaged 20.6 points per game last year at Fairleigh Dickinson and currently leads the Utes with 21.4 points and 4 assists per game. Brown's game revolves around attacking the paint, averaging 8 free throw attempts and most of his field goal attempts in the arc. He takes 3.6 three-point attempts per game and shoots 29.6% from distance. BYU's Kennard Davis and AJ Dybantsa will likely be tasked with disrupting Brown's performance.
Dom McHenry, Guard: McHenry, listed at 6-foot-2 and 170 pounds, is Brown's backcourt partner. He averages 18.5 points and is a more reliable three-point shooter than Brown. McHenry takes 6.3 three-point attempts per game and shoots 42.6%. While he doesn't get to the free-throw line often, he is a dangerous shooter that BYU must focus on.
Keanu Dawes, Forward: Dawes, Utah's most notable returning player, averages 12.9 points and leads the team with 9.1 rebounds per game. He is a strong 6-foot-9 forward who occasionally plays the five. Dawes is not afraid to shoot three-pointers, but his success rate from distance is only 20%. BYU's AJ Dybantsa might be tasked with guarding Dawes, and the strategy could involve feeding Dawes in the post to create physical contact and potentially get AJ in foul trouble.
Prediction
Utah is not a strong team, but they have the offensive firepower to stay competitive if BYU starts slowly. The Huntsman Center will have a mix of fan support, with a healthy number of blue and red in the arena. Utah's student section is expected to be well-represented, and the lower bowl is likely to be predominantly red.
This game has the potential for a blowout. Utah's defense is weak, and BYU's players, like AJ Dybantsa and Rob Wright, should have opportunities to score at the rim. Brown and McHenry are skilled scorers, but their size might be an advantage for BYU's longer players. BYU's starting lineup, featuring Keba Keita and Abdullah Ahmed, should also provide a strong defensive presence when Brown attacks the rim.
For Utah to pull off an upset, they need BYU to start slowly and regain old habits. The crowd and team's belief are crucial, and if McHenry hits a few three-pointers and BYU starts 0-4 from three, Utah can create an early advantage. Utah's best chance is to rely on the three-point line, hoping for their best shooting performance of the season and a poor shooting night from BYU's shooters.
Despite the cliche, it's expected that Kevin Young will be motivated to beat Utah in the Huntsman Center, and BYU is predicted to secure a comfortable win.
Prediction: BYU 90, Utah 68
